Safe dams (II) – A holistic approach for improved safety of concrete dams

This project aims to improve how we assess the safety of dams over time. Today, dams are often evaluated using simple hand calculation methods that require simplifications and idealizations. These calculation methods sometimes indicate that costly repairs are needed, even when they may not be necessary. Therefore, this project intends to develop a better methodology for assessing the risk of dam failure over time by considering factors that are lost in the simplification and idealization required by current methods.

The project employs reliability analysis, which takes into account both load capacity and uncertainties such as the size of the loads and material parameters, instead of only considering the load capacity of a dam and using guidelines from current regulations on what loads the dam should withstand. With reliability analysis, it is possible to calculate the probability of failure in a dam under various load conditions, such as flooding. Additionally, sensitivity analyses can be conducted to clarify which factors have the greatest impact on the probability of failure. This way, it is possible to gain better insight into the safety of a dam and a better basis for decision-making regarding necessary reinforcement measures.

The project also aims to develop a new mathematical model, or analytical formulation, to include irregularities in the bedrock, called “”asperities.”” These natural irregularities in the bedrock likely increase the load capacity of dams but are idealized away in current calculation methods, which can lead to overly conservative safety assessments. Including these in the analysis can therefore help dam engineers make more accurate estimates of the load capacity of dams.

Finally, the project will use computer simulations and results from tests on scale models to confirm the validity of these alternative approaches. This combined methodology can hopefully lead to more informed decisions about when a dam really needs to be repaired, potentially saving money while ensuring safety.”